Methods — Maverick Hightower
Maverick Hightower EPL Projections
EPL · how the number is built

Methods

Every number on the board comes from the steps below, in this order. Each entry says what the thing is, how it is built, and how much to trust it. Measured against real prices, no market shows a demonstrated edge.

Sample

Sample ratings. On the live site the table reads the model's current ratings file.

Club ratings

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Multipliers on the league average of 1.00. Attack above 1 scores more; defence below 1 concedes less. Net is attack minus defence. Home edge is each club's own, roughly a percentage of goals. Available is how much of the usual attack is fit to play. Tap a column to sort.

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Who is missing

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Regulars listed as injured, suspended or doubtful on the public availability list, read before each board is built. A club missing a large share of its attack is priced down; one at full strength is unchanged. Feeds the availability step.

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How it's built

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How sure are we

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Changelog

Every change to the model, with what a reader would see move.

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